Source protection area delineation has evolved over the last decades from fixed radius, analytical and numerical methods which do not consider uncertainty to more complex stochastic numerical approaches where uncertainties are often considered in a Monte Carlo framework. The representation of aquifer heterogeneity in these studies is typically based on a geostatistical representation of hydraulic properties. This presentation compares results from complex stochastic flow and transport simulations, simple homogeneous models, and existing analytical expressions. As a case study, we use the existing drinking supply wells in West Melton located Canterbury’s Selwyn District in New Zealand. Monte Carlo realisations are parameterised in MODFLOW6 so that the prior knowledge of the aquifer’s effective, large scale flow characteristics is honoured. Homogenous simulations are based on the same grid, using the aquifer’s effective properties to parameterise the numerical flow model. In both cases, conservative transport of pathogens is undertaken using Modpath7, using both forward and backward particle tracking. The numerical results are compared with analytical expressions from the international literature. Our results suggest that aquifer heterogeneity needs to be explicitly addressed in all cases. Homogeneous simulations almost certainly underestimate contamination risk and produce unrealistically small source protection areas. Parameterisation of the stochastic heterogeneous realisations also affects the size and extent of the source protection area, suggesting that these need to be carefully considered for practical applications.
Presenter Name
T
Presenter Surname
Sarris
Area
New Zealand
Conference year
2023