Groundwater Flow Modeling for Investigation of Exploitation Induced Land Subsidence

This paper presents the results of groundwater flow modelling studies that were conducted within the scope of the PRIMA RESERVOIR project. The project’s main goal is to develop an innovative methodology to mitigate land subsidence due to excessive groundwater exploitation in water-stressed Mediterranean watersheds. This objective is achieved by integrating earth-observation-derived land subsidence rates with a coupled implementation of numerical groundwater flow and geomechanical modelling. MODFLOWbased 3-D transient flow models were constructed for the four pilot sites (the coastland of Comacchio in Italy, the Alto Guadalentín aquifer in Spain, the Gediz River basin alluvial aquifer in Turkiye and the Azraq basin in Jordan) that have different hydrogeological properties and pose different challenges concerning water management. Models were calibrated and run for similar simulation periods (2013-2021) to obtain hydraulic head drawdowns and changes in groundwater storage. Land subsidence at these sites was evaluated using Advanced Differential Radar Interferometry (A-DInSAR) on image stacks from the Sentinel-1 satellite. Subsidence rates were then compared to hydraulic head drawdown rates to identify groundwater pumping-induced subsidence areas. The comparison for all study areas suggested that locations of maximum displacements do not necessarily coincide with areas that display the largest head drawdown calculated by the flow models. Other triggering factors, such as the thickness of compressible materials, are also related to high subsidence areas.