Global warming affects atmospheric and oceanic energy budgets, modifying the Earth’s water cycle with consequent changes to precipitation patterns. The effects on groundwater discharge are still uncertain at a global and local scale. The most critical step to assess future spring flow scenarios is quantifying the recharge-discharge connection. This research aims to predict the long-term effects of climate change on the discharge of seven main springs with long hydrologic series of discharge values located in different hydrogeological settings along the Apenninic chain (Italy). The investigated springs are strategic for either public water supply or mineral water bottling. The Apennines stretch along the Italian peninsula in a Northwest-Southeast direction, crossing the Mediterranean area that represents a critical zone for climate change due to a decreased recharge and increased frequency and severity of droughts over the last two to three decades. In this communication, the data of one of the chosen springs, called Ermicciolo (42°55’25.8”N, 11°38’29.5”E; 1020 m ASL), discharging out from the volcanic aquifer of Mount Amiata, are presented. Statistical and numerical tools have been applied to analyse the time series of recharge-related parameters in the spring’s contribution area and the spring discharge from 1939 to 2022. To estimate the impact of climate change on the Ermicciolo’s outflow, a regional atmospheric circulation model has been downscaled to the spring catchment area and used to derive the expected discharge at the 2040-2060 time span, according to the build-up data-driven model of the recharge-discharge relationship in the past.
Presenter Name
Tommaso
Presenter Surname
Casati
Area
Italy
Conference year
2023