The Lake Sibaya groundwater-dependent catchment in uMhlabuyalingana (KwaZulu-Natal) has been the focus of hydrological research since the 1970s. The continuous decline in lake water levels and groundwater stores has prompted recent efforts. To increase confidence in the relative attribution of known causes of declines, an existing MODFLOW groundwater model was updated based on reviewed and extended hydrological input datasets and more accurate land-use and land cover (LULC) change data. A novel approach was used in this study, which involved running the ACRU surface-water model in distributed mode to provide dynamic recharge outputs for the groundwater model. This approach considers LULC changes, improved spatial and temporal distribution of climatic data, and land-surface hydrological processes. The refined groundwater model provided satisfactory simulations of the water system in the Lake Sibaya catchment. This study reports on the advances and limitations discovered in this approach, which was used to reassess past to current status quo model simulations for the region. The model was then used, as part of a multidisciplinary project, to assess the response of the lake water system under various LULC preferences based on inputs from local communities under two future climate scenarios (warmer wetter and warmer drier) in the current ongoing WRC project. The ultimate goal is to advise water resources management in the catchment.
Presenter Name
M
Presenter Surname
Maseko
Area
South Africa
Conference year
2023