GIS-Based Modeling Land-Use And Climate Variability Impacts On Groundwater Quality: Cape Flats Aquifer, South Africa

Assessment of aquifer vulnerability to contamination is receiving renewed attention due to recent extreme events as demand for groundwater as alternative sources of water supply intensifies. In this study, GIS-based modeling of the impact of land-based activities and climate variability is employed to quantify the risk to quality deterioration of groundwater resource, delineate potential areas and highlight degree of vulnerability in the Cape Flats aquifer. The study used Scenariorcp85 CMIP5 AR5 climate change datasets downscaled from GCM using WaterWorld model. The WaterWorld is physically based global model for water balance includes all data required for application with a spatial resolution at 1-square km (Mulligan, 2009). The modeling results suggest that water balance for the predominantly low-lying flat central portion receives recharge ranges from 44 to 376 mm/yr. This reflects the area precipitation ranges from 500 to 800 mm/yr. Actual evapotranspiration (mm/yr) ranges from 92 to 1,200. The cmip5rcp85worldclimhe20412060 simulation main results indicate water balance (mm/yr) for the area predict to a minimum of -1,100 and maximum of 1,100. Actual evapotranspiration (mm/yr) ranges from 67 to 1,200. This led to an increase in evapotranspiration for the area of 13 mm/yr (2.5 %) that lead to an overall decrease in the water balance of -44 mm/yr (22 %). The human influence on water quality was simulated based on the human footprint index. The risk of contamination is largely attributed to the change in urban areas, pastures and cover of bare ground. In order to address the significant spatial variability of groundwater recharge and potential contamination risk occurring throughout the area, a GIS-based approach is used. The result underscores that GIS-based models are powerful tools to integrate spatiotemporal data and make assessment possible to improve understanding of water security in light of climate and land use change scenarios.

Presenter Name
Tesfaye Tessema
Presenter Surname
Gintamo
Area
Cape Flats Aquifer
Conference year
2019
Keywords